Judgment under uncertaintyHeuristics and biases
Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman
Erstpublikation in: Science, 1974, 185, 1124-1131
Publikationsdatum:
  Zu finden in: Judgment under Uncertainty, 1982
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Zusammenfassungen
This article described three heuristics that are employed in making
judgments under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually
employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or
event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or
scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the
frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and
(iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical
prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly
economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable
errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to
which they lead could improve judgments and decisions in situations of
uncertainty.
Von Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman im Text Judgment under uncertainty (1974) 
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