Zusammenfassungen
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
Von Klappentext im Buch Expert Political Judgment (2006) Dieses Buch erwähnt ...
Personen KB IB clear | Adolf Hitler |
Begriffe KB IB clear | Denkenthinking , Fuchs-Denken , hindsight bias , Igel-Denken , Politikpolitics , Prognose , Zukunftfuture |
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Zeitleiste
10 Erwähnungen
- Wiki Government - How Technology Can Make Government Better, Democracy Stronger, and Citizens More Powerful (Beth Simone Noveck)
- Open Government - Collaboration, Transparency, and Participation in Practice (Daniel Lathrop, Laurel Ruma) (2010)
- Everything Is Obvious - Once You Know the Answer (Duncan J. Watts) (2011)
- Schnelles Denken - langsames Denken (Daniel Kahneman) (2011)
- The Signal and the Noise (Nate Silver) (2012)
- Risiko - Wie man die richtigen Entscheidungen trifft (Gerd Gigerenzer) (2013)
- Present Shock - When Everything Happens Now (Douglas Rushkoff) (2013)
- 4. Fraktalnoia
- Data-Ism - The Revolution Transforming Decision Making, Consumer Behavior, and Almost Everything Else (Steve Lohr) (2015)
- The Enigma of Reason (Hugo Mercier, Dan Sperber) (2017)
- Noise (Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein) (2021)
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Beat und dieses Buch
Beat hat dieses Buch während seiner Zeit am Institut für Medien und Schule (IMS) ins Biblionetz aufgenommen. Beat besitzt kein physisches, aber ein digitales Exemplar. (das er aber aus Urheberrechtsgründen nicht einfach weitergeben darf). Aufgrund der wenigen Einträge im Biblionetz scheint er es nicht wirklich gelesen zu haben.