Fuchs-Denken |
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Synonyms
Fuchs-Denken, fox thinking
Definitions
Bücher first.

The fox knows many things. In this case, it means that the fox doesn’t have one big analytical idea. The fox will
use many different analytical ideas and will jump from analytical idea to analytical idea, depending on the problem
that the fox is forecasting.
From Dan Gardner in the text Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight (2014) 

Comments
Bücher first.
From Daniel Kahneman im Buch Schnelles Denken - langsames Denken (2011)
From Nate Silver im Buch The Signal and the Noise (2012) in the text Sind Sie schlauer als der Experte im Fernsehen?



Of course, that makes life complicated. But that’s ok, the fox is comfortable with complexity. The fox wants to get
as much information as possible from as many different sources and as many different perspectives as possible
and draw it all together. That is going to do what? It’s going to make for a messy analysis. And messy analyses
usually end in not having a definitive answer. There is going to be a big pile of uncertainty underneath. But they’re
ok with that. „It’s an uncertain world“, the fox says, „You have to accept some uncertainty.“ And of course,
accepting uncertainty requires a certain intellectual humility. Again, you can see it in the language that foxes use.
The foxes are much more likely to use the language of probability: „Likely/Unlikely“, „It may happen“, and „I don’t
know“. Hedgehogs really hate that. Who is the better forecaster? The fox. The foxes were the experts who had
real predictive insights.
From Dan Gardner in the text Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight (2014)
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Often co-cited authors

Tetlock

Taleb
Statistical Concept Network 
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7 References 
- Expert Political Judgment (Philip E. Tetlock) (2006)
- Schnelles Denken - langsames Denken (Daniel Kahneman) (2011)
- The Signal and the Noise (Nate Silver) (2012)
- Present Shock - When Everything Happens Now (Douglas Rushkoff) (2013)
- 4. Fraktalnoia
- Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight (Dan Gardner) (2014)
- The Master Algorithm - How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World (Pedro Domingos) (2015)
- Superforcasting - The Art and Science of Prediction (Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner) (2015)
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