Evidence of an AI-driven shakeup of job markets is patchyOxford Economics, Ben May, Yasmine Badawy
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Zusammenfassungen
Anecdotal evidence suggests jobs are already
Von Oxford Economics, Ben May, Yasmine Badawy im Text Evidence of an AI-driven shakeup of job markets is patchy (2026) - being lost in sectors vulnerable to AI automation. Overall, though, firms don't appear to be replacing workers with AI on a significant scale and we doubt that unemployment rates will be pushed up heavily by AI over the next few years.
- While a rising number of firms are pinning job losses on AI, other more traditional drivers of job layoffs are far more commonly cited. What's more, we suspect some firms are trying to dress up layoffs as a good news story rather than bad news, such as past over-hiring.
- Some evidence is being cited to suggest that rising graduate unemployment rates in the US and elsewhere may be a result of firms using AI for tasks previously done by university graduates.
- However, graduate unemployment typically rises by more than overall unemployment during slowdowns, and we haven't seen convincing signs yet that the rise is structural rather than cyclical. Economies with the softest labour markets have recorded the largest rises in graduate unemployment, while increasing numbers of newly qualified graduates may have contributed to the rise too, particularly in the Eurozone.
- If AI were already replacing labour at scale, productivity growth should be accelerating. Generally, it isn't, though that could change quickly if AI continues to develop rapidly and there's a fast take up by a wide range of firms.
- Still, we're sceptical that firms can quickly and seamlessly substitute workers with AI even in sectors where the potential for AI disruption is greatest. What's more, some surveys suggest that AI use in larger US firms has recently stalled.
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 Begriffe KB IB clear |
 Arbeitslosigkeitunemployment
,  Künstliche Intelligenz (KI / AI)artificial intelligence
,  Produktivitätproductivity
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