Technologienutzung lässt sich schlecht prognostizieren it's not easy to predict the use of technology
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The possibility of accurately predicting the social impact of any new technology is questionable, to say the least. At the beginning of the twentieth century, it was impossible for average people or even the most knowledgeable scientists to envision what life would be like for their grandchildren, who we now know would sit down in front of little boxes and watch events happening at that moment on the other side of the world.
Von Howard Rheingold im Buch Tools for Thought (1985) im Text The Computer Revolution Hasn't Happened Yet In my opinion, the easy part of prediction is the technology. The hard part is the social impact; the effect upon the lives, living patterns, and work habits of people; the impact upon society and culture. I'll lump all of these issues under the term the social impact of technology. It is the social impact of technology that is least well understood, least well predicted. That is hardly a surprise, since it is also the social side of technology that is least well supported. After all, the technologists are not social scientists or humanists, they are researchers and engineers. They can be excused for not understanding the social side of their handiwork. However, they cannot be excused for not acknowledging their own lack of understanding and having some social experts join their team.
Von Donald A. Norman im Buch Things That Make Us Smart (1994) im Text Predicting the Future auf Seite 186Zitationsgraph
2 Erwähnungen
- Tools for Thought - The History and Future of Mind-Expanding Technology (Howard Rheingold) (1985)
- Things That Make Us Smart - Defending Human Attributes in the Age of the Machine (Donald A. Norman) (1994)
- 8. Predicting the Future