Since it is not possible to discuss everything at once, I shall make a number of assumptions about the penetration into society by computers in the next n years, where n might be 5, 10, 15 or some other similar number. The first assumption is banal: the diffusion of personal computers into private life will grow more than linearly as prices come down, computational capacity of small machines goes up and available services and software grow in quality and quantity. The second assumption is a slight extension of the first: substantial numbers of children will have the opportunity to use the computer in the mode I call "computer as pencil," that is to say emulating the quality of the pencil as a familiar, freely available object that can be used for many purposes such as writing, drawing, scribbling, doodling, calculating, chewing and so on. Children will use personal computers in the same spirit -- but more so since the computer can do so much more. The third assumption almost follows from the second: the activity now called "programming" will become so continuous with all these others that no one will think of asking such questions as "will people actually program the computers or just use canned programs." Finally, I assume that together with the diffusion of the physical presence of the computer will come an ultimately much more important cultural presence: ideas, language, metaphors, relationships and aesthetics drawn from the world of computers will become common currency.
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