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FutureHype

The Myths Of Technology Change
Bob Seidensticker ,    
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A wise and clear-eyed book, Future Hype challenges the conventional wisdom about technological change and provides a fresh perspective on our so-called computer age.
Von Nicholas G. Carr, erfasst im Biblionetz am 18.09.2006
A. K. DewdneyFuture Hype takes us on a technological rollercoaster over a landscape of exaggerated promises and failed dreams. Required reading for journalists, teachers, business managers and, well, everybody else.
Von A. K. Dewdney, erfasst im Biblionetz am 18.09.2006

iconZusammenfassungen

Future Hype dissects dozens of "revolutionary" high-tech innovations to entertainingly debunk wrong-headed notions about technological change--notions that all too often result in people adopting new products too quickly, too unquestioningly, and for the wrong reasons. This iconoclastic book provides a new way of looking at technology, one that will help readers take a shrewder, more skeptical view when the latest expensive "must-have" innovation is trotted out.
Von Klappentext im Buch FutureHype (2006)
The book is divided into two parts. Part I looks at how and why we see technology incorrectly. While exploring its downsides, how it bites back, its surprising fragility, and its unpredictability, we will review some tools and insights to make our sometimes tense relationship more pleasant. The nine High Tech Myths are analyzed and debunked. Once the errors are chiseled away, a new and more accurate way of seeing technology change can emerge from the debris.
Part II looks at the constancy of technology change in a broad range of areas. Popular culture, health and safety, fear and anxiety, personal technologies, business - in all of these, history gives us repeated examples that make our experiences today seem unexceptional. This survey, illustrated with stories from thousands of years of technology, should lay to rest the notion that technology change is unique today.
Von Bob Seidensticker im Buch FutureHype (2006)
Conventional wisdom says that technology change is exponential, giving us an ever-growing number of exciting new products. According to this view, we live in an unprecedented golden age of technological expansion. Not so, according to Future Hype.
Author Bob Seidensticker, who has an intimate understanding of technology on professional, theoretical, and academic levels, asserts that today's achievements are not unprecedented. He explodes nine major myths of technology, including "Change is exponential," "Products are adopted faster," and "The Internet changes everything," and he argues that we can't control technology change unless we know how it changes. Examining the history of tech hype, Seidensticker uncovers the inaccuracies and misinterpretations that characterize the popular view of technology, explaining how and why this view has been created, and showing how technology change actually works. He concludes with "hype vaccine," specific strategies to become a shrewder technology adopter.
Von Klappentext im Buch FutureHype (2006)
Everyone knows that today's rate of technological change is unprecedented. With technological breakthroughs from the Internet to cell phones to digital music and pictures, everyone knows that the social impact of technology has never been as profound.
But everyone is wrong. In fact, the pace of change isn't notably faster than in times past and most 'revolutionary" technologies are just refinements of past breakthroughs. Take, for example, developments in the telecommunications industry. The telegraph made it possible to communicate instantly across thousands of miles for the first time in human history. That was a big deal. The cell phone allows you to do the same thing walking down the street. It's cool, but it's just not nearly as fundamental a break with the past. Using dozens of entertaining examples, high-tech industry veteran Bob Seidensticker debunks nine technology myths, proving that:
  • The rate of change is not exponential (myth #1),
  • Important new products don't arrive any faster than they ever have (myth #3),
  • The Internet doesn't really change everything (myth #8), and much more.
Future Hype surveys the past few hundred years to show that many of the technologies we now take for granted transformed society in far more dramatic ways than recent developments so often touted as unparalleled and historic. Seidensticker exposes the hidden costs of technology and will help both consumers and businesses take a shrewder position when the next 'essential' innovation is trotted out.
Von Klappentext im Buch FutureHype (2006)

iconKapitel Unter den anklickbaren Kapiteln finden Sie Informationen über einzelne Teile des gewählten Werks.

  • Leveling the Exponential Curve    
  • 1. The Birthday Present Syndrome
  • 2. The Perils of Prediction   
  • 3. The Unintended Wager
  • 4. If it Ain’t Broke, Be Grateful
  • 5. More Powerful than a Locomotive   
  • 6. Faster than a Speeding Bullet
  • 7. Leap Tall Buildings in a Single Bound
  • 8. Corrective Lenses
  • 9. For Better or For Worse
  • 10. Playing with Matches
  • 11. Fear and Anxiety
  • 12. Technologies That Touch Us
  • 13. Innovation Stimulation
  • 14. What’s Mine is Mine
  • 15. Conclusion: Vaccinate Against the Hype

iconDieses Buch erwähnt...


Personen
KB IB clear
Ray Kurzweil, Marvin Minsky, Alvin Toffler

Fragen
KB IB clear
Können Computer denken?Can computers think?

Aussagen
KB IB clear
Postman-Regel 1: Jede neue Technologie hat Vor- und Nachteile
Technology-Myth #1: Change is Exponential
Technology-Myth #2: Technology is Inevitable
Technology-Myth #3: Important New Products Arrive Ever Faster
Technology-Myth #4: The Rising Tide of Valuable Information
Technology-Myth #5: Today’s High-Tech Price Reductions are Unprecedented
Technology-Myth #6: Products are Adopted Faster
Technology-Myth #7: Invention Gestation Time is Decreasing
Technology-Myth #8: The Internet Changes Everything
Technology-Myth #9: Moore’s Law is Really Important

Begriffe
KB IB clear
Automatisierung, Computercomputer, ElizaEliza, Evolutionevolution, Gesellschaftsociety, Industrielle Revolutionindustrial revolution, Innovationinnovation, Internetinternet, Künstliche Intelligenz (KI / AI)artificial intelligence, Maschinemachine, Mensch, Moore's lawMoore's law, S-Kurven-Modell, Softwaresoftware, Statistikstatistics, Technologietechnology, Turing-Testturing test, Wissenschaftscience, Zukunftfuture
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Bücher
Jahr UmschlagTitelAbrufeIBOBKBLB
1970    Future Shock (Alvin Toffler) 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 8, 7, 14369814350
1999   The Age of Spiritual Machines (Ray Kurzweil) 3, 4, 2, 3, 6, 1, 5, 5, 4, 3, 4, 142963142505

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Douglas AdamsThere’s a set of rules that anything that was in the world when you were born is normal and natural. Anything invented between when you were 15 and 35 is new and revolutionary and exciting, and you’ll probably get a career in it. Anything invented after you’re 35 is against the natural order of things.
Von Douglas Adams im Buch FutureHype (2006) im Text The Birthday Present Syndrome auf Seite 18

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iconErwähnungen Dies ist eine nach Erscheinungsjahr geordnete Liste aller im Biblionetz vorhandenen Werke, die das ausgewählte Thema behandeln.

iconVolltext dieses Dokuments

LokalAuf dem WWW Leveling the Exponential Curve: Artikel als Volltext (lokal: PDF, 67 kByte; WWW: Link OK 2017-06-28)
LokalFutureHype: Gesamtes Buch als Volltext (lokal: PDF, 1258 kByte)
LokalMore Powerful than a Locomotive: Artikel als Volltext (lokal: PDF, 108 kByte)
LokalThe Perils of Prediction: Artikel als Volltext (lokal: PDF, 97 kByte)

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Auf dem WWW Future Hype: Website of the book ( WWW: Link tot Link unterbrochen? Letzte Überprüfung: 2017-06-28 Letzte erfolgreiche Überprüfung: 2016-11-11)

iconStandorte Eine Liste von Orten, wo das Objekt physisch vorhanden ist.

Beat ( 26.09.2006), Marc, D-INFK (IJ.06.1 )

iconBibliographisches Hier finden Sie Angaben um das gewählte Werk zu kaufen oder in einer Bibliothek auszuleihen.

Titel FormatBez.Aufl.JahrISBN      
FutureHypeD--120061576753700SwissbibWorldcatBestellen bei Amazon.deBestellen bei ebook.de

iconBeat und Dieses Buch

Beat war Co-Leiter des ICT-Kompetenzzentrums TOP während er Dieses Buch ins Biblionetz aufgenommen hat. Die bisher letzte Bearbeitung erfolgte während seiner Zeit am Institut für Medien und Schule. Beat besitzt ein physisches und ein digitales Exemplar. (das er aber aus Urheberrechtsgründen nicht einfach weitergeben darf). Es gibt bisher nur wenige Objekte im Biblionetz, die dieses Werk zitieren. Beat hat Dieses Buch auch schon in Blogpostings erwähnt.

iconBiblionetz-History Dies ist eine graphische Darstellung, wann wie viele Verweise von und zu diesem Objekt ins Biblionetz eingetragen wurden und wie oft die Seite abgerufen wurde.

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